The first Iron Banner of Season 11 is here and it brought some highly desirable loot. Unfortunately, it’s nearly impossible to get the gear you actually want.
A Destiny 2 player called @wvardythefourth on Twitter did the math breaking down the probability of getting specific items with specific stats, and the probability if depressingly low. What makes it worse is the fact that there are no repeatable bounties and no consistent way of earning Iron Banner tokens.
There are 13 items in Season 11’s Iron Banner loot pool. 5 of them are new armor pieces with higher than normal stat totals and Arrival mod slots, making them highly desirable (if you can get the right stat roll). The rest are weapons, and while many of these weapons are powerful, the most sought after gun by far is the Forward Path
Poor Odds For Good Rolls
The Foward Path is an updated kinetic Auto Rifle that can roll with so really incredible PvP perks like Dynamic Sway Reduction and Eye of the Storm. While a Forward Path is awarded for completing the Iron Banner quest (along with a Fool’s Remedy sidearm) it comes with a static roll of Pulse Monitor and Iron Gaze, which aren’t ideal for PvE or PvP.
Assuming that each item in the pool has an equal chance of dropping (which is not confirmed) there’s only a 7% chance it will drop. The chance it will roll with a perk you want is around 1%. The chance it will roll perfectly is around 0.005%.
There are plenty of grinds in Destiny 2 and there isn’t anything inherently wrong or unfair about a rare chase. The problem in this specific case is two-fold: it’s very hard to earn Iron Banner rewards and Arrival’s introduced and much more reliable system for farming loot, which makes it feel so much worse.
Farming The Hard Way
An Era Of Customized Drops
What Can Iron Banner Do Better?
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